In the first portion of this blog, we learned that vacation pricing usually follows a seasonal pattern and that being aware of the matrix of pricing may result in a significant savings.  Since most suppliers don’t publicize the price break dates, how can the value oriented travel consumer find out if they’re getting the best deal possible?

In a previous era, many vacationers would have simply turned to their local family travel agent for advice and consultation.  In the information age, many prefer to do their own homework and receive immediate response and confirmation.

When questions of pricing arise, one sure fire method for getting the lowest rate is to test dates before and after the preferred date of departure.  Some airline search engines allow a flexible date option “for one click availability” and pricing for multiple dates.  If this option is unavailable, choose a series of dates which are within your target departure dates. Test each date and compare pricing.  Your decision of which date to choose should be based on a trade off between convenience and savings.  If the price difference between dates is not significant, you may want to go with the first choice and if the rates are dissimilar, you will need to determine how important the savings is.

The most dramatic pattern to emerge recently in the world of travel is less concerned with the season of travel and more focused on the proximity of the reservation to the date of travel.  The surge of last minute bookings is a direct result of the economic slowdown and the resultant fear and hesitation on the part of the consumer.  Marketing executives for cruise lines, resorts, and ancillary businesses are left in the unenviable position of having scores of empty cabins/rooms which must be sold no matter what.  The resultant price drops are raising eyebrows even amongst the most seasoned travelers.  The prices seem almost too good to be true but are designed to lure the traveling public back with an offer that can’t be refused.

When is the last minute deal at the lowest level?  There’s no rule of thumb answer.  More important is to choose a vacation based on your travel needs and then seek a bargain.  A good price is not the sole criteria for choosing a vacation.  Conversely, if you wait too long, you can literally miss the boat.

Most travelers expect to pay more for flights, accommodations, cruises, and other travel arrangements booked for peak season periods such as Christmas and New Year’s dates.  Less known and much less understood is that many travel destinations have a built in matrix of pricing which varies by destination and can result in a significant savings or surcharge of hundreds of dollars based on minor date changes.

Some do not have the flexibility and must travel during set periods corresponding to peak travel dates.  Families with school children, teachers, corporate and factory employees are examples of large groups who may lack the luxury of shifting travel to off peak or shoulder periods.  For the rest of us, having the ability to find what the most cost effective travel dates are is worthwhile.

Many travel destinations follow a distinct pattern which remains consistent year after year.  For much of the Caribbean and Sun Belt destinations, shoulder season begins after Thanksgiving turning into peak season over the Holidays.  The first three months of the year are also “in season” with some variation over Holiday weekends such as President’s birthday.  Easter week and Palm Sunday are traditionally the end of the higher season for the Sun destinations.  Traveling the week following Easter can typically mean a 30% or higher reduction.

Las Vegas has rates which fluctuate week to week based on the convention and exposition business which is the lifeblood of this city.  Arrival during the week of the Consumer Electronics Show will definitely affect your hotel costs.   Like many gaming destinations, mid-week travel is rewarded with a significant reduction when compared with weekend arrivals.

In a normal year, Caribbean cruises follow a pattern which rewards the flexible traveler with deep discounts during slower periods.  There is a significant price break which takes place after Thanksgiving ending the week before Christmas and usually another reduction for the early sailings in the New Year.  Alaska cruises have set pricing and for the value traveler offer one of the clearest examples of playing the pricing game profitably.  The shoulder week prior to June 15^th may be $200 to $400 less per person than the following week’s sailing.  Not a warm weather destination in July or August, does anyone believe that there is any significant difference between the two weeks? 

Europe divides itself into low, shoulder, and peak periods with the low period lasting from December to March.  Shoulder dates include the Fall and Spring months with peak comprising mid-May through mid-September.  Airlines, cruise ships, and hotels tend to base their pricing on these parameters.  Interestingly enough, the air pricing is based on the departure date and not on the return.  If you travel prior to May 15^th, you pay a shoulder season rate even if you return in June.  The difference may be several hundreds of dollars between a May 14^th and May 16^th departure.

Learning the patterns of seasonality for each destination is one sure way to maximize your travel dollars.  In Part II, we’ll review methods which will insure that you’re getting the best deal on or around the dates you’ve chosen to travel even if you’re not familiar with the seasonal patterns.

At this moment in history, it’s accurate to observe that the entire travel industry is on sale and this deflationary trend is especially apparent in the world of cruising.  Cruise line management is compelled to lower prices in order to insure a 100% load factor. Full cabins encourage onboard revenue which plays a major role in the profit equation.  The level of discount is directly related to the number of berths available on any given sailing.

Acknowledging these general trends, one category of cruises almost always offers the lowest price structure whether in good times or bad.  Avid cruisers and bargain oriented travelers should be aware of and take interest in the repositioning cruise as a way of maximizing value. 

Repositioning cruises commonly are seasonal and as the name implies, are offered to move a given vessel from one marketing area to another.  Caribbean cruise ships in Winter, Fall, and Spring transform to Alaska or European cruises in the late Spring, Summer, and Fall.  The corresponding cruises Transcanal and Transatlantic cruises go Westbound for Alaska and Eastbound for Europe in the Spring and reverse the itineraries in the Fall. 

More exotic destinations such as South America and the South Pacific are creating a whole new breed of repositioning cruises.  Like the birds trailing the ship’s wake, these cruises head South in the Fall and North in the Spring.  Some lines use repositioning cruises to offer a limited number of itineraries to a completely different destination.  Lines fill in Spring and Fall dates with long cruises to Hawaii from Ensenada, Mexico or Vancouver British Columbia.  By originating and terminating outside the U.S., cruise lines skirt the prohibition of non U.S. flag carriers operating between U.S. ports. 

Several points can be made about repositioning cruises which help to categorize them compared to other itinerary options. Repositioning cruises tend to be longer than the regular itineraries offered.  Seven day Caribbean cruise ships headed to Alaska commonly offer Transcanal sailing of two weeks or longer ending in Seattle or Vancouver.   The same is true for corresponding Transatlantic voyages and other repositioning cruises. 

Repositioning cruises tend to be less port focused and are better suited for travelers looking for a satisfying onboard experience.  Passengers not comfortable with the cruising experience would be ill advised to undertake a transatlantic voyage which may involve six or more consecutive days at sea.

Repositioning cruises usually have a lower per diem cost than any other itinerary option.  Traditionally, travelers have needed added coaxing in the form of low prices to choose a repositioning itinerary.  Nevertheless, I can boldly predict that as the baby boomer generation advances into retirement, repositioning cruises will increase in popularity and may lose some of their lowest price veneer.  In the meantime, I invite all cruise loving and/or deal loving travelers to investigate the repositioning option.  You will find several air inclusive examples at www.leisurelarry.com

Listen to my weekly segment as I give more cruise tips and deals on On The Go Travel With John Hamilton from January 24.  Listen Here.

Consumers are finding a deluge of discounts in virtually every sector of the travel universe.  A “perfect storm” of increasing supply, decreasing demand due to a weak economy coupled with lower energy costs have forced many travel suppliers into a survival pricing mode.  Consumers frightened by negative economic news are being enticed to purchase by deals unimaginable as recently as six month ago.

The information highway provides prospective vacationers with an endless stream of data which should, in theory, empower them into making better choices.  Many buyers bypass the traditional travel agent network for the immediacy of an online purchase. However, like many other opportunities in life, there is a tradeoff which goes unspoken.  The traditional travel agent/consumer relationship was based on knowledge of the individual traveler’s needs established over a period of time.   With the agent relegated to a non-factor, the prospective traveler is forced to fend for themselves and the online suppliers are for the most part, not capable of stepping up with the kind of consultation and advice which many people require.  What may ensue for some is information overload which creates more confusion and frustration, and may result in an inappropriate selection.
I recommend to the traveling public experiencing these challenges to assume the role of value interpreter and self qualify needs before embarking to the product superhighway.  Being clear about needs and goals is an important step towards making a wise vacation choice.  Here are a few questions worth asking.  Some are more obvious than others but they are all designed to create a whole picture which is the basis for a successful vacation.

When, where, and for how long?  These are simple questions that are very important in determining your availability for various offers.

Land or Cruise based? Consumers ought to be aware of the benefits of each mode of vacation.  Land based may be all-inclusive or not.  Cruises also involve numerous additional costs.

What is the quality rating of the cruise/resort? If you are a first time cruiser, utilize your hotel category choice equivalent to the cruises you are considering.

What is the reliability of the online supplier? Make sure that the supplier is a member of a trade association such as CLIA or ASTA and is bonded and licensed.  Better Business Bureau recommendation is also helpful.

What is included and not included? Have a clear understanding of what items are included and not included.  If you are comparing two vacations, make sure that you’re making a like to like comparison.

Is insurance available? Be aware of cancellation fees prior to purchase.  Trip cancellation insurance should be considered with all purchases.

These guidelines should be considered as a starting point for novice travelers purchasing a vacation package on the internet.  There are many other issues which can also be included and personalized to the individual needs and interests of the traveler.  If these issues introduced create a sense of caution and deliberation, I would consider the entire exercise to be worthwhile.

Earlier this month, I made a wonderful trip to Sea World in Orlando, FL where I was a guest at a recent taping of Wheel of Fortune.  We donated several trips that were used as prizes on the show.

Tune in to hear my weekly travel report as I discuss incredible travel deals in Las Vegas and abroad during Hour 2 of the January 10 broadcast of On the Go Travel with John Hamilton on KGO Radio Newstalk 810. Fellow cruise expert, Stewart Chiron and discount air fare expert Tom Parsons are also on hand to share their travel tips.  Deals deals deals.  

 2008 will be remembered by many as the most challenging year since the aftermath of the September 11th attacks.  More than just one factor, travel experts were juggling multiple themes during the past year including weakening consumer demand, skyrocketing fuel costs, and US Dollar weakness against the Euro and other major currencies.  The only constant that seems to remain as we enter the New Year is continued and more systemic global economic turndown which will likely continue well into 2009.  Considering the lightning speed which has characterized many of the changes witnessed during 2008, it might be overly ambitious to attempt to predict the likely scenarios in 2009.  Nevertheless, here’s my best shot at what we might be seeing in the near future:

1. Continued Downward Pricing Pressure - So much of the travel industry is energy dependent that it was a wonder that prices continued to fall last year even with record high oil prices.  The precipitous fall in energy gave further impetus to the downward price trends which are prevalent throughout the economy.  Travel suppliers, cruise and otherwise, recognize the interdependence between room counts and secondary income streams and will reduce prices to record low levels to ensure high occupancy.  This radical price reduction is most apparent in the cruise industry and in resort cities such as Las Vegas, where visitor expenditures place such a key part in the profit formula.

2. Government Tourist Office Intervention - Various countries and regions will create and advertise massive incentives to entice tourists to visit their respective areas.  These incentives will not be isolated to third world venues such as the Caribbean but will include Europe and Canada as well.  Every visitor staying a specified period of time will be eligible for the government based bonus packages.

3. Dollar Strengthens - As the banks of the other major industrial nations reduce their interest rates to spur lending and economic activity, the dollar will rise.  Some predict that the US Dollar and Euro will be at par in 2009.  European tourism will benefit from a stronger dollar.

4. Economic Uncertainty Fuels Late Booking Trend - The trend of late bookings which has been growing in recent years will reach a crescendo in 2009.  The late booking trend will force suppliers into even greater price reductions to fill space and the travelling public will be trained to wait for the lowest price. Additional cruise capacity planned years ahead for a brighter economic scenario will further exacerbate the problem.  More cruise ships will be relocated to other geographic areas such as the Middle East, Orient, and South America in an attempt to find greater demand and higher revenue.

5. Obama Presidency Re-Establishes US Prestige - Obama presidency to increase popularity of US as a tourist destination barring a series of Bush-like missteps, Obama’s global popularity will encourage US tourism.  The love affair between the US and much of the rest of the world will be renewed.

6. Reconciliation Begins With Cuba - A multitude of factors both within Cuba itself and in the US result in an opening which will eventually lead to the end of the isolation and embargo in place since the early 1960s.  When Cuba finally opens, the cruise industry in particular will be the primary initial beneficiary of the huge pent up demand which exists.

Over the past two decades, Las Vegas has witnessed an unprecedented boom resulting in its continuing reputation as the #1 U.S. playground for the players and the chic.  Fine dining, celebrity and unequaled production shows, pool parties, boutique shops and luxury hotels are part of the scene which millions have witnessed with great enthusiasm.  What’s different now?

Las Vegas has been caught in a slowing economy and the effect has been to put most everything on sale at 50% or less compared with rates as recently as 6 months ago.  This Winter, hotels like the Monte Carlo which were previously $150 a month are offering $40 a night rooms with casino credits thrown in.  Even the most luxurious hotels such as the Wynn and Palazzo are beckoning visitors with dramatic discounts.

Dining in the hotel/casinos now offers a fixed price option to the open menu rate in many cases.  Pursuing ethnic off/Strip restaurants can offer an even greater value without sacrificing the gourmet standards associate with the celebrity chef hotel venues.  Last month, we dined at the Ping Pang Pong (Zagat rated) gourmet Chinese restaurant located in the Gold Coast casino.  An incredible mélange of tastes which totaled a very reasonable $46 for two with wine included!

Several Strip location sell same day top show tickets at real reductions.  We found Bette Midler at the Caesar’s Palace at 30% off and the Cirque de Soleil KA show at the MGM Grand at 50% off.  Both shows were world class in their presentation, staging, and performance.

Add in reduced demand and fuel costs giving air ticket prices that were unimaginable just last summer and you have the ingredients of a great vacation at an unbeatable price!

As the economic downturn continues to unfold, we are seeing more and more media coverage about the exceptional vacation deals that are available to smart travel consumers.  I have said this before and I will say it again- I have not seen deals like this on cruises in over a decade. 

Yesterday, our 2 Week Australia/New Zealand Cruise package was featured on MSNBC’s travel section on their Website.  Just this morning, Meredith Vieira talks to travel journalist Valarie D’Elia on NBC’s The Today Show about some great deals you can get on cruise vacations for the holidays.  In this segment, Ms. D’Elia highlights Caribbean cruises that begin at just $299, deals on cruises to South America, and an interesting program known as a “Layaway Getaway” where the consumer puts money down on an 11 day cruise to Greenland and pays in installments before the cruise in the Spring of 2009.  Very interesting deals to watch!